An introduction to the report, explaining the goal of study (Pax/Gianni):
The price of oil impacts many significant industries within the United States including production and manufacturing, transportation, energy, and the overall US economy. It is important that the US invests money into developing oil production sights in the US to reduce reliance on imports of oil which can be expensive and unstable. “High oil prices can drive job creation and investment as it becomes economically viable for [US] oil companies to exploit higher-cost shale oil deposits. However, high oil prices also hit business and consumers with higher transportation and manufacturing costs” (Beattie, 2021). Throughout the 1970s to the present day, you can see trends in rising and falling oil prices which are impacted by numerous factors. These factors include…
The price of gasoline is predicted by these significant predictors: etc. etc.
Crude oil is the most significant predictor for gasoline prices? (Has a p-value of 0)
All of these factors are significant in determining the prices of crude oil
Determine the price of crude oil against factors
-5.1 drilling activity measure
-1.3 primary energy consumption by source
-5.2 exploratory and development wells
Explain Variables & choose methods to analyze data:
In our analysis, we chose the Crude oil domestic first purchase price as the y or dependent variable, and Active well service rig count, All Grades of Gasoline, U.S. City Average Retail Price, Petroleum Consumption (Excluding Biofuels), Petroleum Products Supplied, Primary Energy Consumption Total and Primary Energy Consumption Total as the x or independent variables. The independent variables are considered to be predictors of the dependent variable. The main method of testing the hypothesis is to run multiple regression to construct a model that only contains significant predictors, and will allow us to predict the price of crude oil given values for the significant predictor(s). On top of performing the multiple regression, we will also create charts and graphs given the data set in order to gain insights that may not be clear otherwise. Finally, we will forecast the price of crude oil into January of 2021: the first month in which data is not available.
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