Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover:
Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment
and Sustainable Development in HKH
Region-Pakistan
Sohail Abbas
Safdar Ali Shirazi
Mian Sabir Hussain
Muhammad Yaseen
Khadija Shakarullah
Saadia Sultan Wahla
Mareena Khurshid
Nowadays, climate change is the global phenomena and extensively
resrached worldwide .However, it is agreed upon to be caused by both
natural and anthropogenic drivers such as land use changes,
deforestation, green revolution, industrialization and consequent
globalization. This study focused on Swat valley, Switzerland of Pakistan
in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, Pakistan. Geographically,
the Swat valley is located in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region,
which spred over an area of more than 4.3 million Sq.km. The current
research relied on meteorological 36 year dataset from1980-2015. In
order to find out the spatio-temporal changes in forest cover, the
image classification was used. The results indicate that the forest
cover observed declined by 16.3% in first five years and 5.5 % in
last five years. The total forest covered area in the year of 1981
was 1316 Sq.km which reduced to 1067 Sq.km and 714 Sq.km in
the years of1998 and 2015 respectively. Similarly, Carbon dioxide
(CO2) emission in 1981 was 0.336 metric tonnes per capita,
followed by 0.929 metric tonnes per capita in 2015.Moreover, due
to climate change and human induced activities, forest cover is
decreasing with the passage of time with increasein Carbon
dioxide emission whereas, soil erosion and desertification has also
shown increasing trends. The negative effects of the forest cover
changes have been observed through an increase in the Carbon
dioxide emission. From 2000 to 2015, the forest area observed to
the decreasing trend. During the same span, the deforestation
found to increase. The trend of the precipitation observed to be
declined.The logical evidence and Geo-environmental database are
the basic components to control forthcoming challenges of local
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 67
and regional climate changes and thus a sustainable forest
development.
Climate is the average weather over many decades in any location. Climate change
refers to any statistical significant and persistent change in the mean state of the
climate over the long period of time. Climate variability may refer from natural
internal processes within climate system or from variations in natural or
anthropogenic external forces. Recently, the world pass from the alarming
condition of the increase the temperature at the rate of 0.128 ± 0.026 °C per year
for the period of 59 years (IPCC, 2007a). This increase in temperature leads
towards the concept of global warming. Currently, Pakistan is also facing such
severe problem of the climate change which, appears to be rising the temperature
substantially (Abbas et al. 2018A). Climate has intrinsic variability and has been
changed in past decades. Climaticand its results from natural variability and
anthropogenic changes in climate which impacts to vulnerability of human and
natural systems (IPCC, 2012).Paul et al. (2011) reported that the temperature of the
earth is increasing due to increase in concentration of Co2 in the atmosphere and
change in land use practicing. This increase in temperature indicates adverse
impact on our earth. Similarly, Copeland et al. (2010) reported that mostly our
climate change occurred due to changes in vegetation pattern and deforestation.
The temperature and rain have an adverse impact on the land use patterns. The soil
erosion caused by the extension of the extensive agricultural practices, soils is
eroded by the water and wind circulations. Such erosion decline the fertility of the
soil with respect to elevation. This will damage the soil properties and
deforestation (Benediktas, 1994). Mango et al. (2010) has found that current
climate change situation in the world has made population more vulnerable and
uncertain to future of this planet .Due to increasing understanding of climate
change situation and its implication for security, trade, the ecosystem, economy
and the human and other species well-being, it attained top priority around the
globe at the level of business, community and government.
The flow of the water from the peak and erosion is the basic reason of the
conversion of agricultural land through forest. Grimm et al.(2008) stated that
variations in climatic patterns are chiefly communal in emerging states; similar
land use/land cover variations are produced by persistent socioeconomic
development, leading to consequences such as ecological degradation and
substantial landscape disintegration. The related environmental variations have so
far been diverse in forests covering particular areas. Lately, the human variations,
which have been characterized as extraordinary, have forcefully affected the
earth’s environment and ecosystems (Lambin et al. 2001). Zhaung et al. (1999)
described that the agricultural area declined due to increase the trends of
urbanization and anthropogenic activities.Ahmed et al. (2007) stated that due to
phenomena of climate change, the human based activities on the earth system
affected. It’s become challenging for human because due this our socio-ecological
mobility in the ecosystem.The threat of climate change can be coped with by
68 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
identifying its effects on different socioeconomic sectors of the country.
Substantial efforts have been made to establish reliable and accurate records of
surface air temperatures of the region (Singh and Sontakke, 1996; Abbas et al.
2018b). The emission of various types of the gases into ecosystem directly
affecting the land covers parameters,components like forest cover, soil fertility and
agricultural land. It is increasing the risk to human health (Serageldin, 2006).The
most important challenge is the climate change in the ecosystem of the 21st
century (Crutzen & Stoermer, 2000).The environmental researchers and scientists
forecast that similar rate of the depletion of natural resources may cause the
catastrophic failures (Steffen, 2004). There are many types of climatic drivers that
have the multi-faceted. The soil textures of the Swat district are gravely togravely,
sandy loam and stone, sandy loam and rocks were fine grained and igneous types
(Nawaz, 1987).The seven classes of the forest in the Swat district ranged from
tropical deciduous to alpine. Many reports in Swat have been published about the
medicinal species. According to such reports, it has approximately 1550 species of
flowering plants and 56 Pteridophyte. The most area of Swat consists of Flora and
Fauna. The 93 plant species are threatened in Swat, which contributes 8 % of the
total plant species. Whereas, 11.5 and 7.5 % observed vulnerable and rare species
respectively in the Swat valley (Shinwari, 2000).
The study highlighted the high rate of environmental degradation by the increasing
trend of deforestation in the Swat valley and land converted into the agricultural
sector (Khan, 2009;Von Mirbach, 2000). The study of land use change
dynamically recorded a significant decrease in forest resources in Kalam, Malam
Jabba and Barikot regions (Qasim et al. 2013).Similarly, a study conducted in the
Kumrat valley, which lies in the Upper Dir district and borders the study area on
the western margin reported a 100 % increase in agricultural land (Ahmad and
Nizami, 2015).The trend of deforestation increased due to land conservation for
agriculture in the lower of Swat valley. Moreover, pasture face threats due to the
increasing trend of overgrazing (Ilas, 2013; Ilyas et al. 2011). Reduce emissions
from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) carry out different types of risks
for national and regional population.The Land covers changes in different areas of
Swat valley depending on the socioeconomic and ecological conditions. The main
objectives of the study is to estimate the forest coverage area from 1980-2015 and
the effects of the climate on theforest cover area. Furthermore also to identifying
the trend of carbon dioxide emission during different time slots in Swat,Pakistan.
2. Material and Methods
2.1 Study Area
The Swat district is the part of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. It is situated in
the Malakand Division. Swat lies in the north-westof Pakistan (Figure 1). The
Swat valley bordered by the Chitral in the northwest region, Gilgit districtlocated
in the north-east, Shangla in the east, and Malakand division in south-west
direction. According to Physiography, Swat valley has a hillyterrain with
elevationsranging from 682 to 5821meters that continuously remained above the
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 69
mean sea level(msl) because of mountainous nature of the area form south to
north inHindu Kush mountain rangeand its foothills.
Figure1. Study area map of the Swat valley
The region naturally covered with Swat River. This valley consists of the forest
cover, fruits, terracing and the agricultural land. The Green Valleyof the Swat is
wealthy in special species like the flora and fauna. The population census
organization deliberated (2017) that the total area of Swat district is 5367 km² and
population density is 430.4 per km². However, total population of Swat 1.2 million
around, while average annual growth rate is 3.37. Due to intense population and
urbanization trend and the coarse texture, it is less cultivated.
According to Development Statistics of the KPK(2014) population growth rate
was low as compared to 2017 census due to high migration towards urban areas for
better livelihood prospects. In the context of climate, the Swat valley lies in the
temperate regime. The short season is the summer in the Swat. The cool climate
observed in the northern part of the Upper land area of the valley. June is the
70 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
warmest month with maximum and minimum temperature of 31.55°C and 26.70°C
respectively. January is the coldest month maximum and minimum temperature of
10.5°C and 6°C respectively. The snowfall occurred in the winter season, which is
extended from October to March. The winter season is much relay on the rainfall
(mm) as compared of the summer season.
The Balochistan province is the driest part which receives 210mm on the average.
Three-fourth part of the country receives rainfall less than 250mm and 20% of it
receives 125mm. Pakistan has four well marked seasons: Cold, from November to
February; Pre monsoon (Hot), from March to mid of June; Monsoon, from mid of
June to mid of September; Post-monsoon, from mid of September to October.
Winter season is harsh.In the context of climatology, Pakistan receives monsoon
rainfall in summer and in winter receives rainfall due to western systems. Most of
the country is arid to semi-arid except southern slopes of Himalayas and Sub
Mountain region where the annual rainfall ranges from 760mm to 2000mm.
Summer season is extremely hot and the relative humidity ranges from 25% to
50%. The Day-time temperature in this season remains 40°C and beyond in plain
areas. The average temperatures in winter range from 4°C to 20°C.
2.2 Data
The present investigated data which include time series on the list of precipitation,
temperature, total forest area and carbon dioxide emitted during the period of 1980
to 2015. The mean serial-time series data of accessible variables were included in
the investigation. The main secondary data to investigate were included KPK
Development Statistics, Federal Bauru of Statistics, Islamabad, and Pakistan
Meteorological Department(PMD).The present investigation was planned to design
and categorize the land uses classes in the Swat valley and to enable the
observation of the impacts of deforestation caused by natural and human activities
on the disruption of the present land-use pattern, forest cover area and water
bodies.
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is an
approach that is developed by the Parties to United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It creates and establishes a financial
value for the carbon stored in the forest sector to reduce emissions from the
forested land sector and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development.
The forest degradation increases the mechanism of the Reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation. After the forest cover area observed during
the investigated period, the carbon stock measurement becomes reliable for the
analysis. The supervised classification method used for the measurement of the
land utilization area. Such investigation and focus of the current study is splited
into steps mention in the Figure 2.
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 71
Figure 2. Flow chart of the research
3. Results and Discussion:
3.1 Annual trends of rainfall and temperature over Swat Valley
The highest average rainfall recorded in summer is about 102.5 mm in 1991 is
much more than 60.53 mm in 2001. Winter season in Swat valley is harsh. The
severe climate variability varies from December to March with the annual mean
minimum temperature is 6°C. The winter season is the consistent for the rainfall
(mm) as associated to the summer season. The highest annual rainfall observed342
mm in the 1991. Precipitation in the winter season is known as the sporadic, which
72 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
is also known as Jarai at the local level. Sometimes, Snowfall has also taken shapes
thunderstorms from mid-January to the end of February.
Figure 3A presents the decreasing trend of Precipitation over the long term in the
Swat valley. The investigated datasets duration (1980-1986) is decreasing the
precipitation. While, from 1987 to 1991 precipitation observed decreasing. The
results also showed the increasing trend of the precipitation from 1992 to till 2001.
After that from 2002 to till 2008, trend is found increasing. On detailed
examination, it is found that trend of precipitation in the Swat valley increasing
from 2009 to 2015. After the detailed investigation, it is stated that precipitation in
the month of June rainfall found to be negative significant.The maximum average
temperature recorded in winter is about 14.51°C in 1988 is much more than 7.69°C
in 2012. The highest average rainfall recorded in winter is about 147.51mm in
1990 is much more than 28.76 mm in 2001. The highest average rainfall recorded
in summer is about 102.5 mm in 1991 is much more than 60.53 mm in 2001.
Figure3. Trend of precipitation and temperature of the Swat valley, Pakistan
Figure 3B declares that the trend of mean temperature is found to be increasing
slightly in the Swat valley, Pakistan. The results revealed that mean temperature
found to be decreased from the 1980 to 1986. After that from 1987 to till 1991 the
mean temperature observed to be increasing. The results also exposed the
decreasing trend of the precipitation from 1992 to till 2001. After that from 2002 to
till 2008, trend is found increasing. On detailed investigation, it is stated that the
trend of mean temperature in the Swat valley decreasing from 2009 to 2015.The
trend of maximum temperature is found to be increasing in the Swat valley,
Pakistan. The results show that maximum temperature found to be decreased from
the 1987 to 1991. After that from 1992 to till 2001the maximum temperature
observed to be increasing.
The highest maximum temperature recorded in the 2001. After the detailed study,
it is found that maximum temperature increased in the month of the June. From
2002 to onward, the temperature trend found to be fluctuating. The decreasing
trend of the minimum temperature also observed. The results describe that from
1980 to 1984, trend of minimum temperature observed decreasing. The results
depict the increasing trend of minimum temperature from 1985 to till 1991. After
A B
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 73
that from 1992 to till 2008, trend found to be decreasing in sequence. After the
detailed examination, trend of minimum temperature found to be decreased from
2009 to 2015.
3.2 Climate Change and land Cover of Swat valley
Thetrend of the forest cover area found to be increased from 1972 to1988. The
results revealed that forest cover area be decreased from 1989-2015.Land use
classes included the natural forest, settlements, water bodies, barren land, snow
and glacier, shrubs and bushes, fruit orchard, Agriculture Land, rangeland and
alpine pastures. The major Land use classes in the Swat valley are natural forest,
Alpine pastures, snow and glacier, and agriculturalland with a percentage of the
35.38%, 19.96%, 19.29% and 15.99 % respectively (Figure 4). According to the
given analysis, the snow cover is almost constant. The water bodies greatly
increased from 12 to 26 %. The forest cover decreased due to deforestation and a
huge increase in settlements. The land use due to other factors decreased from 37
to 7 %.
The soil of forest highly depends on carbon stocks which based on biomass.
Further, it also relates to sustainable agricultural practices which including agroforestry (Smith et al.2014). The reliability of the growth period depends on
resource sequence which is usually more effective than plant species for carbon
dioxide emission (Calfapietra et al. 2010). Reinstatement and restocking of trees
get well the forest cover management that consists of Agro forestry (Bright et al
2009). The temperature and precipitation change pattern effect is a serious matter
in the Swat valley. The anthropogenic activitiesare a major cause of severe the
climatic situations which cannot be negligible.Therefore, inappropriate and
unreliable land use practices are harmfully disturbing the environmental
surroundings, foremost to the climatic variation like rain patterns, extended dry
and wet periods and extreme temperature situation (Betts et al. 200; Abbas et al.
2016). The anticipated temperature ascends all through Pakistan in one decade
from now might be ascribed to provincial atmosphere changes, an unnatural
weather change and nearby land utilize structures from extreme actions that are
likely to occur during the valuable life of such substructure on the other view
(WMO, 1983).
Figure 5 represents the trend in the land use area in the Swat Valley of Pakistan
from 1980-2015. The land cover area of the snow found to be increasing in the first
1980 and after that in 2015, found to be decreasing. The trend of Agriculture land
seems to be declined above 2000 to 2015. This is generally likely due to
increasing the temperature at the global level. The settlement area found to be
increased in the last five year span, whereas the settlement area is found to be
decreasing at the beginning of the investigated span. This increase in settlement is
due to increase the population pressure.
74 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
Figure 4. Land use area map of the Swat Valley, 2015.
The water bodies found to be increased, while the melting of the snow observed
increasing. After the detailed study, it is stated that there is a sharp increase of the
water bodies in the last span. From 2000 to 2015, the forest area observed to the
decreasing trend. During the same span, the deforestation found to increase. The
trend of the precipitation found to be declined. The trend of the temperature
increased investigated during this span. Research during the past decade has
documented changes in climate and atmospheric responses that may affect the
agriculture and forest sector. These changes including the increasing temperature,
changing precipitation regimes and shifting seasonal cycle. This increase will
heighten the negative impacts of reductions in food production due to weather
affecting the forest sector. Tropical agricultural systems are very sensitive to
change in evapotranspiration and monsoon summer movements.
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 75
Figure5.Show land use area of the Swat Valley, Pakistan from 1980-2015.
The climate change has an adverse impact on the forest cover and sustainable
development (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010). Sustainable development
consists of three dimensions like stability, social harmony and environmental
integrity. However, climatic variables like temperature and rainfall are very
important for forest cover growth and its efficiency measurement (Mitra and
Bhatia, 2008; Semenov, 2009). The climatic parameter like precipitation directly
affects the carbon stock and economic growth that createthe problem of forest
security (Spash, 2007; Kirby et al. 2016).The climatic change directly affects the
frequency and intensity of the forest sector disturbances, including the storms,
insectepidemics and wildfires. So, the distribution of forest sector depends on the
variation of the temperature, precipitation and carbon stock.The forest cover shows
the density level from above the 50 % level and its others value.
The forest covers density greater that 50%, 26-50 % and 10-25% beinvestigated.
The greater than 50 % density of the forest cover was observed mostly started from
Kalam to Madyan. The parameters for these forest classes’ densities, the disturbed
class with regards to capturing capacity and land use were obtained from the
application of classification.The impact of climate change is different from region
to region. Expected impact of change in global temperature, rising of sea level,
change in rainfall setup may cause an increase of deserts in the subtropics. Other
consequences are likely to include more frequent extreme weather events including
heat waves, droughts, precipitation and heavy snowfall, flooding, ocean
acidification and endanger fish species due to shifting temperatures can create the
issue of deforestation and land degradation. The most important solutions to
explain the effects of climate change are the forests and environmental
degradation. Forests are considered the stabilizing force for the phenomena of
climate change. It plays a vital part in the carbon cycle, regulation of ecosystem,
protection of the biosphere, to prevent from the biodiversity loss, livelihood
support mechanism and sustainable growth in biosphere. The forests act as two
fold approach. This approach act as the source and a solution for the greenhouse
gas emissions and energy sector.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Land use Area (Sq.
Km)
Year
Snow and Glacier Natural Forest Water bodies
76 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
3.3 Climate Change and REED Plus:
The forest area change in the Pakistan at high resolution and a growth rate of forest
was less than 1 % during 1990-2000 (Hansen et al, 2008). The World Bank
estimated that total forest area of Pakistan was 27653 Sq.km in 1981. Whereas it
reached 21160 Sq.km in 2000 and remains 14720 Sq.km in 2015 (Figure 6A).The
CO2 emission in Pakistan was 0.42 metric tons per capita in 1981 that reached 1.11
metric tons per capita in 2015. In the detailed examination, it is stated that CO2
emissionis observed high in 2007 due to decline the forest area. The forest area
generally decreased due to the less rainfall observed in the Pakistan. The
temperature also observed the high during this similar year.
Figure 6. Swat forest area and CO2 emission, 1980-2015.
Most areas of Swat have a coniferous tress. In Swat, the total forest area covered in
the year of 1981 was 1316 Sq.km and reached 1067 Sq.km in the year of 1998 and
remains 714 Sq.km in the year of 2011(Figure 6B). Due to the declining trend of
forest cover, carbon dioxide emission is increasing that will become dangerously
for species which takes a shape in the deforestation and degradation of the
environment. However, it increased the risk of ecosystem and sustainable forest
management. However, the forest decreasing trend was observed due to increasing
CO2 emissions. According to Forest Department KPK indicated that the increasing
trend of CO2 emission was investigated. In 1981, CO2emission was 0.33 metric
tons per capita as compared to the 1990 was 0.47 metric tons per capita. Similarly,
CO2 emission was 0.63 and 0.88 metric tons per capita in 2000 and 2015 (Figure
8A). The aspects of the all-biological species like resilience and recognition of the
potential parameters of species to access the involvement of Reduced Emissions
from the Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD-plus) mechanism. In the
detailed investigation, it is specified that CO2 emissionis observed high in 2007 due
to decline the forest area. The forest area generally declines due to the less rainfall
observed in the Swat. The mean temperature also be observed the high during this
similar year.
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is an
approach that is developed by the Parties to United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It creates and establishes a financial
A B
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 77
value for the carbon stored in the forest sector to reduce emissions from the
forested land sector and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development.The
forest degradation increases the mechanism of the reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation.Such increasing the trend of the carbon
dioxide emission leads to create hurdles in the sustainable forest development in
the Swat that exerted a direct and indirect impact on the climate of the
region.Through, sustainable forest development reduced carbon emission and
minimizes temperature and increase the rainfall pattern. It also controlled the
floods intensity and land degradation (Lagerquist, 2016). Similarly, protection of
forests and ecosystem in the environment, reduce the loss of biodiversity and
cultivation of crops minimized the environmental stress (M.E.A, 2015).
The area observed to be declining in the Swat and carbon emission increasing. So,
it increases the natural disasters like floods that lead towards the removal of the
fertile soil. Schaffer et al. (2019) reported human have influenced the activities of
the ecosystem. Deforestation pattern observed to be increased due to
anthropogenic activities and change the land use pattern. The increase the water
body movements increase the mechanism of the REDD plus due to removal of the
fertile soil, land use pattern change and the removal of the plants. Therefore, forest
degradation and removal of the forest cover are very complex and dynamic
processes that vary from region to region. Local communities also play vital role in
such dynamic process of the REDD plus.Settlement growth was categorized as the
second reason of forest deterioration in the Swat valley. In Kalam, road
development and settlement were other causes. These drivers of the REDD plus
were related to population stress and development. Another fundamentalaspect is
the Swat river transportation, because it provides better access for people to come
and go from the valley(Bong et al. 2016).
4. CONCLUSION
The climatic changes affect growth and productivity of forests
through changes in the temperature and rainfall.The current study investigated the
climate change impact on the land cover classes like forest cover and identifying
the trend of carbon dioxide emission for the period of 36years from 1980 to 2015
over swat valley in KPK Pakistan. Reducing emissions from deforestation and
forest degradation (REDD+) is an approach that is developed by the Parties to
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It creates
and establishes a financial value for the carbon stored in the forest sector to reduce
emissions from the forested land sector and invest in low-carbon paths to
sustainable development. The forest degradation increases the mechanism of the
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.The land use area be
classified using the supervised classification in the Arc-GIS. The DEM also be
used to find out the elevation of the investigated study area.
The land cover area of the snow found to be increasing in the first 1980 and after
that in 2015, found to be decreasing. This is generally likely due to increasing the
78 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
temperature at the global level. Similarly, the settlement area found to be
increased in the last five year span, whereas the settlement area is found to be
decreasing at the beginning of the investigated span. This increase in settlement is
due to increase the population pressure. The water bodies found to be increased,
while the melting of the snow observed increasing. After the detailed study, it is
stated that there is a sharp increase of the water bodies in the last span. The forest
area during 2000 to 2015 observed to the decreasing trend. During the same span,
the deforestation found to increase. The trend of the precipitation found to be
declined. The trend of the temperature increased investigated during this span.
The snow, agriculture and forest cover area shows that the highest percentage was
founded in 2005 and lowest in 2015 as compared the water bodies had the
maximumpercent was in 2015 and the lowest was in 2000. The rainfall had been
decreased by 6.9percent during 2010-2015, therefore forest cover decreased by 7.2
percent approximately. Whereas From 2005 to 2010, the rise of temperature
changed the least by 0.36 percent, forest degradation the least by 5.5 percent and
increased therainfall most by 27 percent. In 1981, CO2 emission was observed in
Swat is 0.33 metric tons per capita as compared to the 1990 was 0.47 metric tons
per capita. Whereas, CO2 emission was 0.63 and 0.88 metric tons per capita in
2000 and 2015. The trend shows that increase incarbon dioxide emission decreased
the forest cover in Swat valley. Climate change and global warming are the main
threats to nature about natural resources depletion and life.
Deforestation pattern observed to be increased due to anthropogenic activities and
change the land use pattern. The increase the water body movements increase the
mechanism of the REDD plus due to removal of the fertile soil, land use pattern
change and the removal of the plants. Therefore, forest degradation and removal of
the forest cover are very complex and dynamic processes that vary from region to
region. Local communities also play vital role in such dynamic process of the
REDD plus.Settlement growth was categorized as the second reason of forest
deterioration in the Swat valley. In Kalam, road development and settlement were
other causes. These drivers of the REDD plus were related to population stress and
development. Another fundamental aspect is the Swat river transportation, because
it provides better access for people to come and go from the valley.
Impact of Climate Change on Forest Cover: Implications for Carbon Stock Assessment … 79
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80 Pakistan Vision Vol. 21 No. 1
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